Weekly Market Update: March 30 - April 2, 2026
After five consecutive weeks of losses, this week brought something we all needed: a meaningful exhale. Markets snapped their losing streak, driven by genuine optimism around a possible end to the conflict with Iran and the continued discipline of investors who stayed the course. We want to walk you through what happened, why it happened, and what it means going forward.
Note: We've broken this summary into focused sections, so feel free to read it in full or jump to what's most relevant to you.
What Happened This Week
Markets snapped a five-week losing streak this week, with all four major indexes posting solid gains. The rally was primarily geopolitical in nature — driven by growing hopes that the U.S.-Iran conflict may be approaching an off-ramp — though macro data also played a supportive role. U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for the third consecutive month in March, with the PMI rising to 52.7, a constructive sign that the underlying economy continues to hold up despite the geopolitical headwinds.
Weekly returns across the major indices:
S&P 500: +2.63%
Nasdaq: +3.78%
Russell 2000: +2.70%
Dow Jones: +2.00%
It is worth noting that despite this week's rally, market breadth remains relatively narrow — fewer than 50% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages. The rally was encouraging, but we are not yet in the clear. We want to be transparent about that distinction.
Tuesday’s Surge – The Iran De-Escalation Trade
The most dramatic session of the week came on Tuesday, March 31st. Reports emerged that the Trump administration was weighing a potential de-escalation pathway with Iran, and markets responded immediately and forcefully. U.S. stock futures had already jumped more than 1% overnight following the initial reports, and that momentum carried through the full session as buyers stepped in across sectors.
Oil prices also eased on Tuesday, providing additional relief — particularly for the transportation sector, which has been under severe pressure from elevated fuel costs. Despite the mid-week drop, prices ultimately rose Thursday and remain elevated.
Why it mattered: The Iran conflict has been the single most dominant variable in this market since it escalated. When that headline risk shifts — even slightly — the market reprices quickly and dramatically. Tuesday was a clear demonstration of just how much pent-up buying pressure exists beneath the surface when investors feel like the geopolitical fog may be lifting.
As one Capital Economics analyst noted in the wake of Tuesday's move: "De-escalation hopes have given markets a lift, but we think the effects of the war would, in many cases, persist even if the war did end soon." We share that view — a resolution would be enormously positive, but the economic ripple effects of elevated oil prices and tightened financial conditions don't evaporate overnight. We're encouraged but measured in our optimism.
President Trump’s April 1st Address on Operation Epic Fury
On Wednesday evening, April 1st, President Trump delivered a prime-time address to the nation providing an update on Operation Epic Fury. The speech marked a significant moment in the conflict's narrative arc, with the President highlighting what the White House described as extraordinary military achievements after just one month of operations.
Key points from the address included:
- The U.S. military has delivered what the administration called "swift, overwhelming blows" to Iran's military capability, including significant degradation of Iran's navy and air force.
- Key terrorist leadership targets have been eliminated as part of the campaign's objectives.
- President Trump stated that U.S. military objectives are near completion, describing Iran as a "bully no longer."
- The speech was widely interpreted by markets as a signal that an endgame — and potentially a diplomatic resolution — may be within reach.
Our read: The speech was market-positive in tone and substance. The language around objectives being "near completion" is meaningful — it introduces the possibility of a wind-down that markets have not yet fully priced in. That said, geopolitical situations of this magnitude rarely resolve on a single speech, and we continue to monitor for concrete follow-through. Headlines in either direction remain capable of moving markets significantly in a short period of time.
The Bigger Picture
This week was a reminder of something important: markets are forward-looking. The moment — not when the war ends, but when the credible hope that it might end begins to take shape — was enough to produce one of the most powerful single-day rallies in months. That dynamic tells us a great deal about the magnitude of the opportunity that may lie ahead as this situation resolves.
We have said throughout this difficult stretch that the investors who tend to come out ahead are the ones who stay the course, stay engaged, and trust the process. This week validated that patience in a very real way. Portfolios that remained disciplined through the volatility are now well-positioned to participate in the recovery that appears to be building.
There is still uncertainty ahead. The conflict is not over, oil remains elevated, and the market's internals are not yet fully healthy. We are not declaring victory. But we are genuinely encouraged — and we believe the path forward, while not without risk, is becoming clearer.
As always, please don't hesitate to reach out with any questions or if you simply want to talk through your individual situation. That's what we're here for — the hard weeks and the good ones alike.
This market update is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
